Reform or Ruin in the Middle East
If we’re serious about shaping the future, we must confront some hard truths and ask some tough questions—is there any hope left for the region?
Lebanon is at a critical juncture—much like the rest of the Middle East, where the forces of moderation, long sidelined, now face a rare opportunity to reclaim the narrative. Hezbollah, once seen as an untouchable Iraninan-backed force within Lebanon, appears to be slowly losing its grip, offering a slim but significant chance for reform. But make no mistake: this window is not just an opportunity. It’s a test. If those who believe in Lebanese sovereignty fail to act decisively, the country and the region will slip deeper into chaos—just as we’ve seen elsewhere in the Middle East.
The unimaginable horror of what happened on October 7th and afterward will be remembered for decades to come in the Middle East and around the world. And as the war erupted, there was another, quieter casualty: the relevance of Arab and Middle Eastern liberals.
A year before October 7th, 2023, I was in the region, and everyone was talking about regional integration, the Abraham Accords, and peace between Arab states and Israel; to talk about those things now elicits assumptions of betrayal and delusion. Everyone is fighting for their own survival, and to talk about peace and coexistence labels you a traitor at worst and a coward at best.
As someone who has long advocated for liberal ideals and coexistence among the different factions of the region, it’s hard not to feel a sense of failure. We didn’t prevent the attack. We couldn’t stop any of the wars that came after. The voices of moderation and liberal ideals—our voices—are now barely a whisper.
What happened over the past year is part of a much larger story that’s been unfolding for years, a story of how liberalism has steadily lost ground to authoritarianism, sectarianism, and extremism. The fallout hasn’t been about just one attack, one country, or even one ideology. It’s about how the forces of reason, tolerance, and reform have been drowned out by violence, radicalism, and the kind of thinking that keeps the Middle East trapped in a perpetual cycle of destruction. This is not new. In Professor Ali Alwai’s book about King Faisal I of Iraq (who I was named after), we see how the voices of modernity and darkness have been in conflict for centuries. We can draw inspiration from the successes and learn from the failures.
In Lebanon, the current moment offers a unique opportunity for lasting change. I don't want to be too optimistic, but from listening and talking to people inside the country, I know that many of them want things to change.
Hezbollah is weakened, and for the first time in years, moderates and reformists have a chance to push the country toward real change. The president of Lebanon calling for the return of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 that calls for disarming militias, including Hezbollah, could be an opportunity for reform-minded voices that are ready to act. But—and this is the part we must face—the opportunity won’t last long. If Hezbollah regroups, the war continues, and if the forces of extremism regain control, Lebanon will continue to be in this chaos. The question isn’t whether the moderates will act; it’s whether they can act fast enough. Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s former Prime Minister, said, “We will not accept that Lebanon remains a pawn in regional conflicts. Our future lies in neutrality, peace, and development, not in becoming a battleground for others.”
What’s happening in Lebanon is a microcosm of the broader Middle East. Across the region, the liberal project has been in retreat, steadily losing ground to extremists and authoritarians, even though we have a positive message about coexistence and prosperity. Advocates for tribalistic, collectivist, and extremist mindsets seem to have the upper hand.
The past 365 days were just the latest flashpoint. It exposed a painful truth: liberals have become irrelevant in shaping the region’s future. But this irrelevance isn’t something that happened overnight.
Where does that leave us—the liberals, the reformists, the ones who believe in a better, more peaceful future?
It leaves us with a choice. Do we give up? Do we retreat into irrelevance, telling ourselves that our ideas are too “idealistic” for a region as troubled as the Middle East? Or do we regroup, rethink, and rebuild? If we’re serious about shaping the future, we must confront some hard truths. First, the liberal movement in the Middle East is fragmented. Whether in Lebanon, Iraq, or elsewhere, we’ve failed to unite across national, ethnic, and sectarian lines. And that failure has cost us dearly. If we’re going to stand a chance, we need to build alliances—not just with each other, but with anyone who wants to live in the same country as we do.
In Lebanon, the first step is clear: seize the moment. Hezbollah’s narrative—that it’s the only force capable of defending Lebanon—needs to be dismantled. For years, it has justified its existence by pointing to external threats, but what has that brought? More violence, more instability, more economic ruin. The moderates in Lebanon must craft a counter-narrative, and they already have. One that positions them as the true defenders of Lebanon’s sovereignty and future. And they need international support to do it—whether through media platforms amplifying their voices or financial backing for grassroots movements pushing for peace and reform.
The other priority is to empower the Lebanese army with all its diversity, including Sunnis, Shias, and Christians, to make sure that it is the one in control of the country and that the Lebanese government is a reflection of its society, not a pawn of foreign powers.
The diaspora, too, has a crucial role to play. Lebanese communities abroad, particularly in the West and Latin America, have influence. They can raise awareness, lobby policymakers, and provide the financial support that reformists need. But just as importantly, they can offer a vision of what Lebanon could be: a country where economic recovery is possible, where entrepreneurship can flourish, and where the private sector—not Iranian-backed militias—drives growth.
The events of last year were a wake-up call for the entire Middle East, but especially for us, the liberals left standing. We have a choice: either we recognize the depth of our crisis and act, or we continue to drift more into irrelevance, allowing extremists to lead our countries more into the abyss.
Lebanon is just one example, but the lesson applies everywhere. We can’t afford to wait for the perfect moment or the perfect coalition. The time to act is now.
There is still hope. Despite the grim realities we face, there are people in Lebanon, Iraq, and across the region who believe in the values we hold dear—peace and prosperity. But they need support, they need a platform, and they need allies. If we can provide that, if we can unite around a coherent vision for the future, then maybe—just maybe—we can reclaim our relevance and help build a Middle East that isn’t defined by extremism, but by the potential for progress. A Middle East that people want to visit rather than escape.
Time is running out. Let’s not waste it.
While it’s true that Israel’s decapitation of Hezbollah presents Lebanon with a once in a generation opportunity to regain its sovereignty, the fractured nature of the various powerful groups, each historically looking to what advantages their in-group at the expense of the larger community needs to be overcome.
In a word, Lebanon can only be saved if its people truly see themselves as Lebanese first and not primarily through a sectarian lens. Whether they can overcome that essential problem remains to be seen.
That said, those who seek to restore Lebanon’s independence need allies and the most obvious would be, sad to say, France. Yet President Macron’s approach since the massive port explosion several years back has been feckless. Even now, the demands for a ceasefire first, discussions without a set of demands before a ceasefire is agreed to only gives space for a battered Hezbollah to regroup and maintain its grip.
More is required and that, in turn, will require at least a diplomatic confrontation by the Western powers with Iran to cut off Hezbollah. But that won’t happen until the “war against the Jews as Islam’s principal enemy” is relegated to the dustbin of history and a more pragmatic approach replaced it.
Lebanon could indicate an interest in ending the state of war it declared against Israel in 1948. It has no legitimate quarrel with the Jewish state, and nothing prevents it from accepting the Blue Line as the international border. It never cared for the Palestinians as can be seen by its harsh legal treatment bordering on apartheid. That should be a separate matter, along the lines of how Egypt and Jordan acted in their peace negotiations.
The future of Lebanon lies, therefore, in expelling outside influences, peace with Israel and the benefits of entry into the Abraham Accords.
Those opposed to this vision will continue to use the Palestinians - for whom they too care nothing as can be seen, for instance, with Hamas’ revolting callousness in deliberately sacrificing its own people. The Palestinians deserve better than being pawns in larger Islamic games. But for that to happen, they like the Lebanese must take the initiative and carve out a better future for them and their children.
Is it too much to ask that they abandon their genocidal fantasies against their Jewish neighbors? The choice is theirs … and has always been. We can only wait to see what the future holds, more of the same or something better.
Cheering from the sidelines Faisal. I felt every word of this post in my soul. All the very best.