Navigating the Crossroads

Iraq is faced with a critical choice: succumb to expanding Iranian influence or pursue its own interests and sovereignty.

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is at a critical juncture. Iraq stands at a crossroads, facing a pivotal choice that will shape its future: will it become a province or a proxy under the expanding influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran, or strive towards being an independent state, pursuing its own interests and sovereignty? Iran's influence in Iraq has been growing steadily, especially after the 2003 U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. This influence is not merely political but extends to economic, cultural, and military dimensions. Iran has capitalized on the religious and cultural ties it shares with Iraq, especially with the majority Shia population. Tehran’s strategy has been to support various Shia militias and political groups, effectively creating a proxy network that can sway Iraqi politics in favor of Iranian interests. The result is a shadow state within Iraq, one that undermines the central government's authority and sovereignty.

On the other side of the spectrum is the aspiration for an independent Iraq—a path that entails following its own national interests and maintaining sovereignty over its decisions and resources. This choice aligns with the sentiments of a significant portion of the Iraqi population, as demonstrated by the protests that erupted in 2019. These protests were not just against economic hardship and corruption but were also a clear expression of resentment towards foreign interference, particularly from Iran. An independent Iraq would mean a stronger central government, a focus on national unity irrespective of sectarian divides, and policies prioritizing Iraq's developmental and geopolitical interests.

The United States, in its foreign policy towards Iraq, faces the challenge of supporting Iraq’s sovereignty without overtly making Iraq a proxy for its interests. The US policy should aim at bolstering the state institutions of Iraq, away from the influence of the Islamic Republic, both in Iraq and the broader region, including Lebanon. This approach involves supporting the voices of change—those who rose in the 2019 protests demanding a more independent and transparent government. The goal should not be to create a pro-American Iraq but to nurture a pro-Iraqi Iraq, one that is capable of making decisions that serve its people, free from external pressures, be it Iranian or any other.

Unlike many other protests that happened across the region, the main flag my friends were carrying that year was the Iraqi flag. What surprised me was the emergence of significant interest in liberal literature and values. This development inspired my organization, Ideas Beyond Borders, to mass print the short version of On Liberty by John Stuart Mill in order to make it widely available to Arabic-speaking youth in Iraq. The young protesters had a voice for a short time that was snuffed out the moment Iranian-aligned militias started shooting at many of these protests, killing not just the protesters themselves, but aiming to destroy the spirit of the youth writ large. 

Despite all the pressure, that spirit is still there, waiting for its opportunity to be heard and realized. Iraqi youth want change. Liberal coalitions were formed in an attempt to institutionalize the movement's goals despite increasing pressure from the government and its Iranian proxies to silence dissent. I was a part of the coalition, meeting with members during one of my recent visits home. I was happy to discover I wasn’t alone in my desire for an Iraq that is diverse, multicultural, secular, and free.

How can the United States and its allies support the growing movement of Iraqi youth advocating for sovereignty and democracy? The answer is simple: a weaker Iran means a stronger Iraq.

The US strikes against Iranian proxies in Iraq aim to prevent these forces from transforming Iraq into a global threat once again. This is especially pertinent considering that Iranian militias' treatment of Sunni populations has intensified sectarian tensions, contributing to the rise of ISIS—a group that poses a threat not just to Iraq, but to the entire world. Iraq must stand firm—but it can only do so given the right conditions, which relies heavily upon the decisions of the West. Sanctions are woefully insufficient. The US should continue to attack Iranian proxies to make it difficult, if not impossible, for them to organize and expand. Countries like Iraq have the potential to move in a positive direction, absent the threat and influence of the Islamic Republic. It’s up to us to empower them to take steps toward that future. 

Iraq’s decision at this crossroads is more than a choice between two external influences; it is about defining its identity and future as a nation. For Iraq to flourish and maintain its sovereignty, it must intentionally navigate away from being a proxy to any foreign power. The role of the US should be one of support, not dominance, encouraging a path that respects Iraq’s independence and the aspirations of its people. As Iraq deliberates its future, the international community must recognize and respect its sovereignty, allowing the nation to emerge as a strong, independent entity in the international arena.

The International Correspondent is edited by Reid Newton.