Is Cuba Poised to Become the Next Ukraine?

Unraveling the implications of China's alleged Cuban involvement.

Havana, Cuba

According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, China has allegedly reached a clandestine deal with Cuba to establish an electronic eavesdropping facility on the island, barely 100 miles from Florida. However, the White House has cast some doubt over the accuracy of this report. While it's too early to draw firm conclusions, this news, if true, seems to echo a familiar geopolitical pattern reminiscent of Russia's interactions with Ukraine. It raises a critical question: Is Cuba set to become the next Ukraine?

China's purported moves in Cuba could be interpreted as an extension of the geopolitical chess game it’s been playing for decades. Much like Ukraine, which found itself a pawn in the power struggle between Russia and the West, Cuba could potentially play a similar role in the escalating tension between China and the U.S. This seems especially plausible considering that China's interest in Cuba doesn't stem from its strategic or economic significance to Beijing. Instead, it appears China is using Cuba to provoke the U.S., potentially drawing them into a proxy war closer to U.S. soil within the sphere of influence defined by the Monroe Doctrine.

This doctrine, established in 1823, warned European nations against attempts to control any independent state in North or South America, stating it would be interpreted as a hostile act against the United States. In more contemporary times, this doctrine has been used to support U.S. intervention in the Western Hemisphere. Hence, China's alleged establishment of an eavesdropping post in Cuba, if true, would represent a direct challenge to U.S. power and influence.

However, to fully anticipate China's possible end game, we must pivot to Taiwan— a nation that has been at the heart of China's territorial ambitions for decades. Amid escalating tensions, China has doggedly stuck to its 'One-China' policy, vowing to bring Taiwan under its control, even if it means resorting to brute force. If China can bait the U.S. into a proxy conflict in Cuba, it could effectively distract the U.S., diverting their attention and resources from the Taiwan Strait.

Furthermore, by situating the potential conflict so close to the U.S. mainland, China may be aiming to create a more immediate and tangible threat to the U.S. This could pressure the U.S. into making strategic concessions in other regions, such as the South China Sea or Taiwan, in return for deescalating tensions in Cuba.

The alleged deal between China and Cuba, if confirmed, would undoubtedly cause alarm for the Biden administration, posing a new threat close to U.S. shores. It could also raise questions about the upcoming visit to China by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, especially given the recent tensions between the two countries over various issues, including military activity in the South China Sea near Taiwan, Beijing's human rights record, and technological competition.

However, it's important to note that the U.S. also has a history of spying on China in its vicinity, with reports of using Taiwan as a listening post for mainland China and regularly flying spy planes over the South China Sea, which has been a source of tension with Beijing. It's a reminder that the world of geopolitics is often a two-way street.

While the details of the alleged deal remain murky, the geopolitical implications are clear. If the report is true, it would represent a high-stakes chess move by China, with Cuba potentially becoming the next Ukraine. The New York Times published a confirmation that China has been spying from Cuba since 2019. The confirmation of intelligence cooperation and potentially billions in CCP funds could be the catalyst that shines the military spotlight on Cuba, something unseen since the unsuccessful Bay of Pigs Invasion. As China aims to distract its citizens from its faltering economic policies through nationalist rallying cries, it simultaneously attempts to divert the attention of the Pentagon by positioning a threat near the U.S. mainland, essentially in the backyard of the Monroe Doctrine territory. As diplomatic efforts ramp up, we can begin to hear the faint rumblings of potential conflict, either in the South China Sea or the Caribbean.

China doesn't possess the military capability to engage in a global war, but it can instigate a proxy conflict that could distract the American public and potentially discourage them from supporting a kinetic conflict in defense of Taiwan. The primary aim of China seems to be diverting the U.S.'s attention away from Taiwan. The global community must tread lightly, as escalating tensions could lead to catastrophic consequences. It remains to be seen how this precarious situation unfolds and whether diplomacy can effectively defuse the escalating tensions.